2018

Economists tout “success” of policy that drove housing costs up for millions of Californians

In the midst of an affordable housing crisis  in California, UCLA economists have the balls to put out a study trumpeting the success of California’s 2008 anti-foreclosure law.

Their definition of success?  Housing prices are now 15% higher than they otherwise would have been… up to 60% higher in some middle-class neighborhoods of Los Angeles.

Our politicians continue to pass laws — often with the backing of prominent economists — that drive up the cost of education, health care, and housing.

Isn’t it at least possible that one reason we all feel less secure is that the government is driving up the cost of those things that are most critical for a sense of well-being and security?

 

 

Share this post

Owl!

It only took me 7 years to get a photo of an owl at our house.  This one is a western screech owl that lives in the palm tree above my car.  I had to stake it out for 4 consecutive nights — after I first heard the hooing — and then got this photo.  Still going to try to get a video of the owl emerging from the tree at sunset.  Stay tuned!

 

Share this post

When is it okay to be happy that someone is dead?

Billy Graham died. And I’ve seen several posts in my Facebook feed saying, in effect, “Good riddance.  The world is better without Billy Graham in it.”

I don’t know very much about Billy Graham, but I’m curious about this instinct to declare judgment on his life. How would one know whether Billy Graham had a net positive or net negative impact on the world?

The man had five kids, 19 grandchildren, and presumably even more great-grandchildren.  What impact will all of them have on the world?  Will it be net positive or net negative?  He was a counselor to presidents of both parties and a minister to millions of people.  How could we possibly know what effect he had on public policy or the lives of those who listened to his sermons?

He also said some very ugly, anti-Semitic things in telephone call with Richard Nixon over 40 years ago.  And he once claimed that AIDS might be a form of punishment inflicted on the gay community by God.  Then he apologized — seemingly sincerely — for both of those statements.

What’s interesting to me is how arrogant one would have to be to  claim that “the world is better off” when someone dies, especially if you’ve never met that person.   In effect, you’re casting yourself in the role of God, declaring who goes to heaven and who goes to hell.

But the people saying these things are non-religious and present themselves as the opposite of arrogant.

 

 

Share this post

Scariest jobs chart ever – Not so scary anymore

This is astounding.  Back in 2009-10, I used to share this Calculated Risk chart with folks to get them to understand how devastating and persistent the job losses were after the financial crisis (especially when compared to prior recessions).

But now the very same chart tells a very different story.  The job recovery has been incredibly steady.  We’re coming up on 100 months of strong, persistent job growth.

Given the strong job market, when will workers begin to demand more in wages?

 

Share this post

Reverse the Facts – the Nunes memo

Imagine for a moment that the Bush-era DOJ had sought a FISA warrant to surveil someone on the Obama campaign.  And they didn’t disclose to the court that a significant piece of evidence was an unverified product of oppo research funded by Romney.

As Orin Kerr points out, it doesn’t mean that the warrant is legally invalid or that the substance of the oppo research is incorrect.  It doesn’t mean that the subject wasn’t worthy of being surveilled.

But it’s still pretty icky.

If you reverse the fact pattern, then Rep’s are apoplectic about the Dem’s ties to Russia… and Dems are appalled at the surveillance-of-a-political-foe-justified-by-oppo-research.

Who can doubt that Trump would have conspired with Putin if he thought he could get away with it? He has no moral compass. So let’s see what Mueller’s got. There’s no evidence of collusion/conspiracy yet….just a bunch of ham-fisted, ethically dubious meetings and emails.

If real evidence of conspiracy comes out, then impeachment is the only option. Until then, I’m keeping my powder dry.

Share this post

“I think I’m on a date. I’ve never been on a date before. What do I do?”

In the last two days, about 14 different random amazing things have happened to me.

It all started with this: Yesterday I’m waiting in line at the restroom of a cafe, and a random very young girl approaches and says, “Can I ask you something? I think I’m on a date. I’ve never been on a date before. He just paid for everything, and I really like him. What do I do?”

Over on Facebook, everyone wants to know what I told her to do.  But I don’t think she was actually looking for advice.  She just wanted someone to share her excitement with.  I think I offered something like “keep your cool.”

“I feel like such an adult,” she says.

This moment made my whole day.  And I would *never* have done what that girl did.  But why wouldn’t I?  Why wouldn’t I choose to share a moment of joy with a total stranger?  What’s holding me back?

And that was just the start.  Other good stuff…

*Running late for an event at the Last Bookstore in DTLA, I find a parking spot, *directly outside the front door*

*Getting up painfully early, I discover that, yes, the eclipsed moon is indeed setting right over Griffith Observatory, as I had hoped it might.

*After dragging my tired ass to drinks with a friend last night at 10 pm (sort of dreading it), we run into three of his colleagues, all of whom are prosecutors in the DA’s anti-gang unit. Really fun conversation leads to late night.

Share this post

The *huge* tax issue no one is talking about

During the debate about the Republican tax overhaul, there was quite a bit of Sturm und Drang about how the bill will exacerbate income inequality.  Well, yes, it probably will, on the margin.  It cuts marginal tax rates on the highest levels of income, and it provides lots of protections for certain types of income — like passthrough income — that will benefit more rich people than non-rich people.

But no one — including the Democrats — is talking about the main source of inequality in the tax code.  The long-term capital gains rate.   If you buy something (say, a house or a share of stock) at a low price and then later sell it a higher price, you pay a lower tax on that income than you would if you made the same amount of income by toiling as a lawyer, janitor, or any other job.  The rates vary with your total income, but the most you can pay on long-term capital gains is 20%.  Taxes on wage income range up to 37%.

My investor friends argue that the lower rate is necessary as an incentive.  Why would they put their money to work in the economy, if they aren’t given this special tax break?

But I think it’s a horrible argument.  There are two primary ways to participate in the productive economy: (1) You can employ your time (by working), or (2) You can employ your money (by investing).  Money and time are interchangeable.  You can use one to purchase the other.  And vice versa.   But the tax code treats them very differently.

From a public policy perspective, we want to encourage both forms of participation in the economy.  By giving a special incentive for people to invest their money in the economy, we’re giving people a special disincentive to invest their time.

The issue here is fairness.  Poor people don’t have a lot of money to invest, but they do have their own time.  The wealthy typically have a surplus of money.

Why do we penalize the form of economic activity that is available to poor people?

Share this post

Start typing and press Enter to search

Shopping Cart